Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.

Scott explains why firing bureaucrats wouldn't reduce red tape, as bureaucratic delays come from legal requirements and mandates rather than staff numbers, using the FDA and other examples to illustrate his point.

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates.

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory.

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items.

A review of 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, examining trading principles and their broader applications to decision-making and life.

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet.

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples.

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.

Scott Alexander examines several model city projects, including Saudi Arabia's Neom, criticizing its unrealistic plans and discussing other developments in crypto-friendly zones and floating cities.

A review of 'Viral' by Chan and Ridley explores competing hypotheses about COVID-19's origins, critiquing institutional responses and emphasizing ongoing uncertainty.

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.

Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic.

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences.

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism.

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, awarding funding to various projects and individuals across different fields.

Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims.

Scott Alexander reviews several model city projects, analyzing their feasibility and unique challenges with a mix of skepticism and interest.

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation.

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 37 links and interesting facts, covering topics from AI research and educational methods to historical anecdotes and current events.

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug.

Scott Alexander examines Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras, detailing its plans, governance, and potential impact while addressing criticisms and limitations.

Scott Alexander shares 35 diverse links covering scientific studies, historical facts, cultural observations, and technological developments.