Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary

Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary

Scott explains why firing bureaucrats wouldn't reduce red tape, as bureaucratic delays come from legal requirements and mandates rather than staff numbers, using the FDA and other examples to illustrate his point. Longer summary

Scott critiques Vivek Ramaswamy's proposal to fire 50% of federal bureaucrats by explaining how bureaucracy works in practice. Using the FDA as a main example, he shows that the number of bureaucrats isn't the bottleneck - rather, it's the amount of required paperwork, legal requirements, and Congressional mandates that create bureaucratic delays. He explains that reducing staff would just make existing processes take longer, and explores why even industries like crypto sometimes want more regulation. The post ends by examining Idaho's successful reduction of regulations, while remaining uncertain whether similar methods could work at the federal level. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates. Longer summary

This post analyzes the performance of Javier Milei, Argentina's libertarian president, focusing on key economic indicators and policies. Scott examines government surplus, inflation, poverty rates, rent control abolition, and Milei's approval ratings. He notes that Milei has achieved a government surplus through significant spending cuts and has reduced monthly inflation, though yearly inflation figures remain high. Poverty has increased under Milei's administration, but there are slight signs of economic improvement. The abolition of rent control has led to increased housing supply and lower prices. Milei's approval ratings, while declining, remain relatively high compared to other world leaders. Scott concludes that while Milei has fulfilled his promise of short-term economic shock, it's too early to judge the long-term success of his policies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a detailed response to comments and criticisms of his previous post on the COVID-19 origins debate. He addresses arguments against zoonosis, clarifies misunderstandings, and discusses the methodologies used by various parties in the debate. He maintains his position favoring zoonosis over lab leak, while acknowledging the complexity of the issue and the ongoing nature of the debate. Shorter summary

A collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering topics from religious practices to AI developments, with brief commentary on many items. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 47 diverse links and news items covering various topics. It includes discussions on religious practices, video games, political trends, scientific studies, AI developments, economic analyses, historical anecdotes, and cultural phenomena. The author provides brief commentary on many of the items, often with a mix of humor and critical analysis. The links range from academic studies and economic reports to quirky historical facts and contemporary cultural observations. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, examining trading principles and their broader applications to decision-making and life. Longer summary

This book review analyzes 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, which explores trading principles and their applications to decision-making in various aspects of life. The reviewer discusses Lebron's insights on motivation, adverse selection, risk management, liquidity, edge, models, costs and capacity, possibility, alignment, technology, and adaptation, while drawing parallels to other fields and offering personal reflections. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that even seemingly extreme media misinformation usually involves misleading presentation of true facts rather than outright fabrication, examining several reader-provided counterexamples. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to criticisms of his previous post about media rarely lying by examining several examples readers provided. He argues that even in extreme cases like Alex Jones' Sandy Hook conspiracy theories or claims about election fraud, media sources are typically highlighting true but misleading facts rather than outright fabricating information. Scott contends this matters because it means efforts to censor 'misinformation' will always require subjective judgment calls rather than being a straightforward process of removing falsehoods. He suggests people want to believe bad actors are doing something fundamentally different than good faith reasoning, but in reality most are just reasoning poorly under uncertainty. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary

This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field. Longer summary

This post discusses the recent shutdown of PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, by the CFTC. It explores potential reasons for the shutdown, including suspicions of lobbying by competitor Kalshi. The post also covers new developments in the prediction market space, including Hedgehog Markets allowing user-created markets, a forecasting tournament by the Salem Center and CSPI, and updates on various prediction markets and their forecasts on topics like China-US conflict, AI-generated music, and remote college education. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines several model city projects, including Saudi Arabia's Neom, criticizing its unrealistic plans and discussing other developments in crypto-friendly zones and floating cities. Longer summary

This post discusses several model city projects, focusing on Saudi Arabia's ambitious Neom project, the Catawba Digital Economic Zone, and the Maldives Floating City. Scott critically analyzes Neom's unrealistic plans, including a 170 km long linear city and other grandiose features. He expresses concern about the misuse of Saudi Arabia's oil wealth on this project. The post also covers the Catawba Nation's crypto-friendly economic zone and a planned floating city in the Maldives. Scott concludes with updates on other model city projects and makes predictions about the future of these developments. Shorter summary

A review of 'Viral' by Chan and Ridley explores competing hypotheses about COVID-19's origins, critiquing institutional responses and emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Viral' by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley, which explores the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reviewer summarizes key points from the book, including evidence for both natural and lab leak hypotheses, the history of lab leaks, the relevance of Wuhan's location, and criticisms of institutional responses. The review also covers technical evidence and debates around it, while emphasizing the reviewer's uncertainty about the pandemic's true origin. The author concludes by reflecting on the role of amateur researchers and the importance of scientific self-correction. Shorter summary

The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents evidence that the 2020 US homicide spike was caused by Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2020 homicide spike in the US was primarily caused by the Black Lives Matter protests rather than the COVID-19 pandemic. He presents evidence on timing, demographics, police pullback, and comparisons with other countries and previous protests to support his claim. The post criticizes media coverage for attributing the spike to complex factors or the pandemic, suggesting a bias in reporting. Shorter summary

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary

This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, awarding funding to various projects and individuals across different fields. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the ACX Grants program, which awarded funding to various projects and individuals across different fields. He provides details on the awardees, their projects, and the grant amounts. Scott also discusses the challenges of the grant-making process, acknowledges the help he received, and outlines future steps for the program. Shorter summary

Lars Doucet presents evidence that land is still a major economic factor in modern times, contrary to some economists' claims. Longer summary

This post, written by Lars Doucet, is the first in a series examining the empirical basis for Georgism. It focuses on whether land is still a significant economic factor in modern times, as some economists argue it isn't. Doucet presents evidence that land is indeed a major economic factor, showing that it represents a large portion of urban real estate value, bank loans, personal assets, and government revenue potential. He also demonstrates that land ownership is highly concentrated among the wealthy, contributing to economic inequality. The post concludes that land is a 'really big deal' in modern economies, contrary to some economists' claims. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews several model city projects, analyzing their feasibility and unique challenges with a mix of skepticism and interest. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several model city projects, including Telosa (a planned Georgist utopia in the American desert), Prospera (a libertarian charter city in Honduras), Auroville (an existing spiritual community in India), and other related developments. He analyzes the feasibility, challenges, and unique aspects of each project, often with a skeptical but open-minded perspective. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. He starts with the concept of a Keynesian beauty contest applied to long-term forecasting, then analyzes recent developments in PredictIt markets, particularly the Virginia gubernatorial election. He explores the idea of using prediction markets to evaluate teacher performance, and examines some recent Metaculus predictions on SpaceX valuation, college enrollment, and AI code assistance adoption. The post also covers Vitalik Buterin's proposal for using prediction markets in social media moderation, and concludes with various links to prediction market-related news and articles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 37 links and interesting facts, covering topics from AI research and educational methods to historical anecdotes and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 37 diverse links and interesting facts. Topics range from politics, technology, and science to history, culture, and economics. The post includes updates on AI research, discussions of educational methods, unusual historical anecdotes, and commentary on current events. Scott Alexander presents these with his characteristic mix of curiosity, humor, and analytical insight, often adding personal thoughts or highlighting particularly intriguing aspects of each item. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug. Longer summary

This review of Charles Mann's 'The Wizard and the Prophet' explores the contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt (the 'Prophet') and Norman Borlaug (the 'Wizard'). The reviewer initially favors Borlaug's Wizardly approach of using science and technology to solve problems, but later acknowledges the complexity of modern systems may require a more holistic approach. The review covers the book's structure, discussing the biographies of Vogt and Borlaug, and then exploring four key areas: food, water, energy, and climate change. The reviewer concludes by reflecting on the challenges of COVID-19 and the need to continue striving for improvement despite increasing complexity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras, detailing its plans, governance, and potential impact while addressing criticisms and limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of Próspera, a new charter city project in Honduras. He explains its origins, current status, ambitious plans, governance structure, and potential impact. The post also addresses criticisms and concerns about the project, while acknowledging its limitations and potential benefits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares 35 diverse links covering scientific studies, historical facts, cultural observations, and technological developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a collection of 35 interesting links on various topics. These include scientific studies, historical anecdotes, cultural observations, and technological developments. Some notable items are: a failed replication of the link between childhood screen time and attention problems, insights into the Canadian tech scene, a map of Reddit, and a technology for animating old photos. The post also covers topics like urban planning, economic policies, and quirky historical facts. Shorter summary