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Jul 22, 2026

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Links For July 2026 (Part 1)

25 min • 3,748 words • 418 comments • 198 likes

Scott shares his monthly collection of interesting links from around the internet, covering topics from Jeremy Bentham's linguistic legacy to AI developments, with characteristic commentary and fact-checking caveats. Longer summary

This is Scott's monthly 'Links' post, a curated collection of interesting articles, studies, and social media posts from around the internet. The links span a wide range of topics including historical curiosities (Jeremy Bentham's word inventions, beard-wearing persecution in 19th century America), scientific oddities (a mushroom that causes gnome hallucinations), AI developments (mathematical proofs, constrained writing, dating apps), current events (Berkeley's housing permits, GLP-1 weight retention), and cultural phenomena (the Monet/AI art prank). Scott includes his typical epistemic disclaimers about not having verified all links independently and provides commentary throughout. The post ends with a note that he accumulated too many links and will publish the second half next week. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: AI (110), links (62), internet culture (34), cognitive bias (33), consciousness (33), links roundup (28), Manifold Markets (12), predictive coding (11), AI art (6), mathematics (5), historical curiosities (5), dating apps (3), GLP-1 drugs (3), sperm count (2), trapped priors (2)

Jul 02, 2026

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The AI Superforecasters Are Here

39 min • 5,984 words • 328 comments • 571 likes • podcast (42 min)

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions. Longer summary

Scott discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters that are now matching or slightly exceeding top human forecasters in prediction accuracy. He describes how these AI systems work (using scaffolding around frontier models like GPT/Claude), demonstrates their use with examples from FutureSearch and Preseen, and analyzes their performance on platforms like Metaculus where they're competing in tournaments against humans. The post explores both near-term implications (AI forecasters being easier to access than human superforecasters, potentially influencing policy and business decisions) and longer-term possibilities (AI forecasters serving as an 'opinion layer' for AI systems, transformation of prediction markets into AI-vs-AI competitions). Scott argues these developments could be genuinely beneficial, giving people access to superhuman forecasting ability just as AI threatens other aspects of society. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: prediction markets (85), Metaculus (34), AI alignment (32), AI capabilities (21), decision-making (15), AI policy (11), AI forecasting (10), Kalshi (9), superforecasting (8), Philip Tetlock (3), FutureSearch (2), financial markets (2), human vs AI performance (2)

Mar 06, 2026

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SEIU Delenda Est

15 min • 2,251 words • 673 comments • 639 likes • podcast (14 min)

Scott argues that California's proposed billionaire tax is actually an extortion scheme by SEIU, which has a history of proposing destructive ballot initiatives and withdrawing them in exchange for concessions. Longer summary

Scott argues that California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act is not a genuine progressive wealth tax proposal, but rather an extortion scheme by the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). He explains the tax's various problems (including taxing unrealized gains and being retroactive), then reveals SEIU's history of proposing deliberately destructive ballot initiatives targeting healthcare industries, only to withdraw them in exchange for money and union expansion rights. The union has done this repeatedly with hospitals and dialysis clinics, spending millions on initiatives they never intended to pass. Scott suggests the billionaire tax follows the same pattern: SEIU is leveraging Governor Newsom's presidential ambitions and desire to keep tech billionaires happy, hoping he'll offer concessions to make the initiative disappear. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: healthcare policy (20), Silicon Valley (12), California politics (10), Gavin Newsom (4), ballot initiatives (3), wealth tax (3), labor unions (2)

Mar 03, 2026

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Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

36 min • 5,499 words • 307 comments • 230 likes • podcast (31 min)

Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange. Longer summary

Scott analyzes several recent prediction market stories. First, he examines how Anthropic's stock price barely changed after the Pentagon declared it a 'supply chain risk', because markets predict the company will win on appeal and the designation only affects a small portion of their business while generating positive publicity. He then discusses the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to win but various Republican voting law changes could create chaos, though markets suggest turnout won't be significantly affected. The post includes a statistical analysis of groundhog weather predictions, showing Staten Island Chuck's high accuracy is likely due to consistently predicting spring. He covers prediction markets about the Iran conflict, including regime change odds and potential casualties. Finally, he announces MNX, a new cryptocurrency-based futures exchange focused on AI-related hedging markets, and shares miscellaneous prediction market news including Substack's partnership with Polymarket. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: AI (110), prediction markets (85), cryptocurrency (30), Mantic Monday (22), AI regulation (14), Anthropic (12), Manifold Markets (12), Polymarket (10), Iran (2), Pentagon (2), supply chain risk (2)

Feb 05, 2026

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Links For February 2026

48 min • 7,419 words • 660 comments • 255 likes • podcast (49 min)

A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander's February 2026 links collection covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, politics, science, culture, and internet phenomena. Major themes include updates on AI capabilities and regulation (with discussions of OpenAI, Anthropic, and various political machinations around AI policy), the ongoing COVID lab leak debate and related prediction markets, healthcare and drug development issues, cultural observations from around the world, and various scientific and academic findings. The post maintains Scott's characteristic style of jumping between serious policy discussions, academic research, internet curiosities, and cultural commentary, with particular attention to AI safety concerns, rationalist community topics, and interesting historical or linguistic oddities. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: forecasting (87), prediction markets (85), scientific research (64), links (62), rationalist community (38), internet culture (34), AI alignment (32), links roundup (28), OpenAI (27), AI development (23), AI capabilities (21), healthcare policy (20), drug development (18), dating (18), AI regulation (14), crime statistics (13), Anthropic (12), AI policy (11), COVID-19 origins (6), lab leak theory (3), political influence (2), cultural observations (2)

Oct 28, 2025

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Model City Monday 10/27/25

27 min • 4,093 words • 239 comments • 221 likes • podcast (25 min)

Scott surveys the current state of charter city projects worldwide, from Grand Bahama's potential revival to California Forever's bureaucratic progress to Prospera's legal battles in Honduras. Longer summary

Scott provides updates on several charter city and model city projects around the world. He covers Grand Bahama's potential sale to a charter city company after decades of decline, California Forever's progress through bureaucratic approval processes, Prospera's legal standoff with the Honduran government ahead of elections, and Sherbro Island City in Sierra Leone backed by the grandson of the country's first president and actor Idris Elba. The post ends with brief updates on various other projects, including separatist communities in the US, Trump's Freedom Cities plan, and a new special economic zone in Nevis. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: urban planning (23), charter cities (10), economic development (9), Prospera (8), Honduras (7), ZEDEs (3), California Forever (3)

Oct 21, 2025

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Tech PACs Are Closing In On The Almonds

18 min • 2,779 words • 516 comments • 343 likes • podcast (17 min)

Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary

Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: effective altruism (97), AI regulation (14), lobbying (9), campaign finance (5), political spending (3), political influence (2), crypto regulation (2)

Aug 12, 2025

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Highlights From The Comments On Liberalism And Communities

32 min • 4,823 words • 248 comments • 108 likes • podcast (28 min)

Scott discusses comments on his previous post about liberalism and communities, exploring various perspectives on how wealth and societal structures affect community formation and maintenance. Longer summary

This post is a follow-up analyzing comments on Scott's previous article about liberalism and communities. He examines three main areas: theoretical discussions about community formation, specific examples of existing communities, and miscellaneous observations. The comments challenge and expand on his original thesis about wealth enabling community formation, with some arguing he underestimates existing communities while others suggest wealth actually hinders true community building. Scott identifies four different strategies for community formation and responds to various criticisms about legal barriers, sustainability, and the role of modern entertainment in community dissolution. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: highlights from the comments (67), community building (22), liberalism (11), community (6), Amish (6), community dynamics (4), modern society (3), wealth (2), intentional communities (2)

Feb 27, 2025

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Links For February 2025

45 min • 6,840 words • 933 comments • 212 likes • podcast (43 min)

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary

In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: links (62), social media (42), climate change (33), current events (28), AI development (23), link collection (23), research (16), political analysis (10), Trump administration (6), policy changes (2)

Jan 17, 2025

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Links For January 2025

35 min • 5,422 words • 875 comments • 236 likes • podcast (32 min)

Scott shares various interesting links and news items from January 2025, covering topics from AI development and politics to historical curiosities and economic trends. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide array of topics from January 2025, with Scott providing commentary and analysis on each. The links include discussions about running for Congress, AI development and safety, dating advice, psychiatric diagnoses, and various economic and technological developments. Scott often adds his own insights and sometimes skepticism to the claims being discussed. The post also includes several historical curiosities and social observations, maintaining a mix of serious analysis and lighter interesting facts. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: study critique (268), AI (110), economics (103), politics (89), links (62), healthcare (56), dating (18), blog (17)

Oct 10, 2024

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SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story

43 min • 6,634 words • 432 comments • 184 likes • podcast (43 min)

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: effective altruism (97), prediction markets (85), AI safety (69), AI regulation (14), Silicon Valley (12), California politics (10), lobbying (9), Gavin Newsom (4)

Sep 12, 2024

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Links For September 2024

32 min • 4,892 words • 990 comments • 215 likes • podcast (29 min)

A compilation of 50 diverse news items and links from September 2024, covering topics from politics and economics to science and technology. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of 50 diverse links and news items from September 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including politics, science, technology, economics, and social issues. Some notable items include discussions on kidney donation compensation, personality genetics, fertility rates in Israel, drug decriminalization in Oregon, AI regulation in California, and various political and economic analyses. The post also includes commentary on recent studies, books, and social phenomena. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: AI (110), economics (103), politics (89), science (85), psychology (69), technology (63), healthcare (56), drug policy (19), society (4), fertility (3)

Jan 18, 2024

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Links For January 2024

23 min • 3,526 words • 472 comments • 193 likes • podcast (20 min)

Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor. Longer summary

This links post covers a wide range of topics, including recent research on the Flynn Effect, factors influencing fertility rates, genetic engineering, AI developments, political issues, historical anecdotes, and local Bay Area news. Scott highlights interesting studies, cultural phenomena, and recent events, often with a humorous or ironic tone. He touches on subjects like universal basic income experiments, the formation of elite groups, and changes in political dynamics. The post also includes several visual elements like unusual architectural designs and tattoos. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: AI (110), politics (89), Bay Area (18), research (16), genetic engineering (15), crime (15), fertility rates (4), universal basic income (3), Flynn Effect (2)

Aug 01, 2023

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Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster

22 min • 3,353 words • 185 comments • 91 likes • podcast (19 min)

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of forecasting and prediction markets. It starts with an update on Kalshi's request to the CFTC for permission to create prediction markets about upcoming elections, discussing the public comments received. The post then announces the Manifest 2023 conference on forecasting and prediction markets. It discusses prediction markets related to a potential room temperature superconductor discovery, and how these markets are being used to track the developing story. The post also covers PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, the use of forecasting technology in finance, new forecasting platforms like Fatebook and The Base Rate Times, and several current prediction market probabilities on various topics. It concludes with some short notes on recent developments in the forecasting world. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: forecasting (87), prediction markets (85), Kalshi (9), CFTC (8), PredictIt (5), Manifest conference (2)

May 23, 2023

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Mantic Monday 5/22/23

29 min • 4,451 words • 149 comments • 88 likes • podcast (30 min)

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: forecasting (87), prediction markets (85), book review contest (23), gambling (5), Manifold (4), open-source AI (2)

Dec 08, 2022

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Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency

24 min • 3,632 words • 897 comments • 331 likes • podcast (23 min)

Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why he is 'less than infinitely hostile' to cryptocurrency, despite widespread criticism. He argues that crypto has clear use cases in countries with weak banking systems, that major crypto projects are rarely outright scams, and that crypto provides valuable insurance against authoritarianism by enabling financial transactions when governments try to restrict them. Scott also contends that while the crypto financial system may be inferior to traditional finance in many ways, its decentralized nature gives it unique advantages. He concludes by suggesting that crypto's potential utility shouldn't be dismissed, even if one doesn't personally need it. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: cryptocurrency (30), technological progress (19), authoritarianism (17), developing countries (2), scams (2)

Sep 22, 2022

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Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability

41 min • 6,220 words • 566 comments • 68 likes • podcast (42 min)

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about billionaire wealth, addressing various economic and ethical perspectives. Longer summary

This post summarizes and responds to reader comments on Scott Alexander's previous article about billionaire wealth and replaceability. It covers topics like natural monopolies, the role of luck vs. talent in business success, risk-taking by entrepreneurs, the political power of billionaires, and ways to test the replaceability of inventors and innovations. Scott engages with various perspectives while adding his own thoughts and clarifications on these complex economic and ethical issues. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: highlights from the comments (67), wealth inequality (11), entrepreneurship (7), Georgism (6), monopolies (4), Jeff Bezos (3), Amazon (3), billionaires (3)

Jun 13, 2022

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Mantic Monday 6/13/22

13 min • 1,909 words • 147 comments • 50 likes • podcast (17 min)

Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: forecasting (87), prediction markets (85), Metaculus (34), US politics (32), AI development (23), Mantic Monday (22), Elon Musk (11), Ukraine-Russia war (4)

Jun 03, 2022

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Your Book Review: The Castrato

63 min • 9,763 words • 236 comments • 75 likes • podcast (72 min)

A comprehensive review of 'The Castrato' by Martha Feldman, exploring the history, biology, and social impact of castrati singers in Italy. Longer summary

This book review explores 'The Castrato' by Martha Feldman, detailing the history of castrati singers in Italy from the 16th to 19th centuries. It covers their origins, biology, vocal abilities, social status, and relationships with the church and aristocracy. The review also draws parallels to modern practices and speculates on potential future implications of human modification for entertainment or power. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: book review (212), Catholic Church (5), biology (3), aristocracy (2)

Sep 29, 2021

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Book Review: The Scout Mindset

35 min • 5,421 words • 704 comments • 155 likes • podcast (38 min)

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Scout Mindset' by Julia Galef, a book on rationality that emphasizes seeking truth over defending beliefs and addresses both intellectual and emotional aspects of clear thinking. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Julia Galef's book 'The Scout Mindset', which aims to teach people how to think more clearly and rationally. The book distinguishes between 'soldier mindset' (defending one's beliefs) and 'scout mindset' (seeking truth). It provides techniques for adopting a scout mindset, including probabilistic thinking and thought experiments. The book also addresses the emotional challenges of changing one's mind and uses examples of admirable people who have done so to normalize the practice. Scott notes that the book goes beyond just teaching rationality techniques and touches on personal growth and becoming a better person. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: book review (212), rationality (52), critical thinking (23), cognitive biases (18), thought experiments (10), personal growth (4), confirmation bias (3), probabilistic thinking (2)

Sep 06, 2021

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Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts

17 min • 2,567 words • 843 comments • 335 likes • podcast (19 min)

Scott Alexander analyzes the evolving narrative around a news story about ivermectin overdoses in Oklahoma hospitals, illustrating how cognitive biases and media dynamics can distort information. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a news story about ivermectin overdoses overwhelming Oklahoma hospitals, showing how it evolved from a local news report to international coverage, and was then seemingly debunked. He uses this as a case study in cognitive biases, media narratives, and the difficulty of determining truth in polarized situations. The post is structured in three parts, each revealing a new layer of complexity and uncertainty in the story. Scott emphasizes the importance of skepticism and checking sources, even (or especially) when a story confirms one's existing beliefs. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: media criticism (76), COVID-19 (53), cognitive bias (33), political polarization (30), ivermectin (9), scientific skepticism (9), fact-checking (7), information literacy (2)

Aug 25, 2021

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If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Governor Of California?

14 min • 2,040 words • 342 comments • 126 likes • podcast (14 min)

Scott Alexander argues that many people missed an opportunity to have a realistic chance of becoming Governor of California in the recall election, and analyzes why this happened. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a unique political opportunity in California's recall election of Governor Gavin Newsom. He argues that almost anyone with a slight amount of fame or money could have positioned themselves to have a 5-10% chance of becoming Governor. The post explains the recall process, the current political landscape, and how the leading Democratic replacement candidate, Kevin Paffrath, a YouTube landlord influencer, gained his position. Scott suggests that many people, including himself, missed this opportunity and could have been in Paffrath's place. He explores various counterarguments and concludes with thoughts on opportunity recognition and the nature of power. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: California politics (10), Peter Thiel (5)

Jul 07, 2021

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Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

73 min • 11,254 words • 491 comments • 107 likes • podcast (87 min)

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: study critique (268), statistical analysis (53), COVID-19 (53), US politics (32), much more than you wanted to know (30), cost-benefit analysis (6), pandemic response (5), lockdowns (3), Sweden (2)

Jan 14, 2019

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Too Many People Dare Call It Conspiracy

19 min • 2,801 words • 575 comments • podcast (44 min)

Scott Alexander explores the overuse of the term 'conspiracy theory' and provides heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiratorial claims. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of conspiracy theories, arguing that the term is often overused and misapplied. He presents a list of various claims, ranging from political conspiracies to scientific misconduct, and analyzes which should be considered conspiracy theories. The post introduces the 'Basic Argument Against Conspiracy Theories' which states that large secret organizations are difficult to maintain without detection. Scott then applies this principle to various scenarios, showing how some seemingly conspiratorial ideas might not actually qualify as conspiracy theories. He concludes by offering heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiracy claims, emphasizing that the size, secrecy, and self-interest of the groups involved are key factors to consider. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: conspiracy theories (32), political polarization (30), critical thinking (23), institutional behavior (4), scientific integrity (4), CIA (2), social epistemology (2)

Jan 27, 2016

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Links 1/16: Shaolink

22 min • 3,388 words • 968 comments

Scott shares diverse links ranging from optical illusions and Bitcoin drama to educational research and medical controversies, with commentary on methodology and social implications. Longer summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics. The post starts with scientific curiosities like the McCullough Effect optical illusion and updates on potential alien megastructures, then moves through educational research, Bitcoin controversies, and employment discrimination. It includes discussions of medical issues in the UK, interesting methodologies in gender research, and immigration policies. The post ends with various studies on economics, psychology, and social issues, including an intriguing study about Vietnam veterans' children's income. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: study critique (268), education (90), science (85), healthcare (56), research methodology (26), immigration (21), psychology research (11), employment discrimination (2)